Foresight: facing our futures from worst to best

Our images of the possible futures play a huge role in what future becomes a reality - eventually. Many people dread the future privately as several surveys show. But at work, anything else than progress and (techno)optimism is a taboo. 
Yet, anticipating a possible decline or collapse of markets, industry sectors, governance, global trade, eco-systems, and trust in societies may be very useful to come up with better plans and strategies…

Many people dread the future privately as several surveys show. A 2017 global survey found that only 13% of the public thinks the world is getting better, which is a major change from ten years earlier (Ipsos MORI 2017). Other polls show that far fewer people today than in the last decade believe their children will have a better future than themselves (Stokes 2017).
An opinion poll by the Institut français d'opinion publique (IFOP 2020) in five countries (France, United States, United Kingdom, Italy, and Germany) found that 56 percent of British people and 65 percent of the French think that Western civilization as we know it will collapse within 20 years.

Our image of the future is a huge leverage point. If people change their expectations of what is possible in the future, then they feel driven to reconsider their present plans and actions. In other words, change the future and the present will follow.

That’s why strategic foresight is crucial - and why we must reclaim our imagination, as I also discussed in my article about Rob Hopkins’ book “From what is to what if“ and the one about Andy Hines’ book “Imagining after Capitalism”.

In his book “Facing Our Futures” Nikolas Badminton states that by anticipating possible dystopias as a part of strategic foresight, we can gain the courage and motivation to choose something better. 
He also says: “The billionaire technocrats, politicians, and fervent investors are not looking out for us and our futures. They want to define a closed ecosystem and narrow view that can easily be regulated and policed by the terms and conditions we happily accept so that we are reduced to being users.” 
But we’re so much more than users of systems and societies. We must be co-creators and citizens. The real and virtual worlds are ours, too!

We, creators of realities

It is crucial that we, the people, and we, as employees, leaders, professionals, and consultants at work reclaim our agency when it comes to imagining possible futures. Let’s not outsource this vital task to tech corporations or governments or “experts”. 
That’s why I often ask: What is the future we want to create? Let’s not be passive. Let’s imagine, anticipate, and work toward a future that works for many people. And not just for white people in the global North. As fellow travelers on this planet, we must include everyone and look at multiple values - beyond just monetary and economic values.

Understandably, organizations emphasize monetary values and growth. The global market is very competitive so progress is imperative. Grow or become vulnerable.
Though I have been advocating for positive organizations with a positive purpose where people and performance thrive - I don’t mean fake positivity or naive optimism. We face many challenges and technology can’t solve everything. 

We need realistic, actionable scenarios to navigate through the next decades of tough transitions. Such scenarios can help us adapt in time, and be resilient and successful in possible futures. But then you need to acknowledge that there are other options than eternal progress, success, and growth. 

Talk about taboos

Let’s be brave and talk about this taboo. You’d better look under the bed to check for monsters - and deal with them before they deal with you.
If you start to see negative visions of possible futures, you can use positive practices to come up with as many effective responses and solutions as you can. A positive mindset goes a long way - especially in negative situations. (See my book: Developing a Positive Culture - for more inspiration)

Badminton and I are on the same page. He says: “I relish the opportunity to sit down with a board of directors and ask: What if the world no longer needs you, or sees you as relevant? What if the good times are over because you've been complacent for too long? Then I sit back in silence to see what, usually uncomfortable and surprising, discussions emerge.”

“I remind my clients that we are in a state of constant change where humanity, technology, industry, and the natural world complexly interplay, thus creating ideas of possible futures that may be positive or dystopian.”

Realism pays off, as the research by René Rohrbeck and Menes Etingue Kum shows (2018: 'Corporate foresight and its impact on firm performance: A longitudinal analysis’):
Companies that recognize that the future might change the very foundation of their business, that prepare for it, and change their course of action accordingly, are 33 percent more profitable than companies on average. In addition, these vigilant companies have achieved a 200 percent higher growth rate than the average company.

But overall, as a global economy, we are in what Jim Dator calls 'limits and discipline' - and a precursor to potential collapse. Not a great place to be.
See my article about Dator’s four scenarios here.

Positive and Dystopian futures

Badminton has “accepted that dystopian futures are highly likely due to short-term thinking, ill-informed decisions, and unforeseen risks.” Dystopian futures help organizations take action. That’s why he created the positive-dystopian framework for Strategic Foresight work, with the two extremes defined as:

Positive Futures - a world where we have a global view and infrastructure to support, improving health and wellness, and reducing wealth disparity. A world where we design humanity-centric, balanced, and egalitarian solutions to our greatest challenges. A world where we rely on a reduced reliance on the few companies that want to change the world and towards an empowerment of every person on the planet to have ownership of their own identity (and their data), and a right to exist with their hopes, dreams and opinions in any place in our world, and in our futures. A world where we see infinite futures and plan for them accordingly through the application of positive principles of change. Ultimately, it is a world where wars are no longer present and any conflict can be resolved through rational discussion and collaboration.

Dystopian Futures - a world where we perpetuate the reliance on the industrial complex, supported by military action and conflict, and where billionaires and shareholders are rewarded ahead of any of the users of technology solutions/platforms. A world that is led by short-term thinking and greed, and where personal protectionism is apparent and unashamed. A world where leadership ego is left unchecked and short-term effects are rewarded. A world of corporate and governmental surveillance and control to ensure we all have futures that fall in line with the visions of the few people who want to shape the singular future.

Imagine the worst - and the best

The foresight process has several phases: setting the focal issue, setting foundational principles, scanning themes, finding signals of change,  identifying trends, developing scenarios, and speculative futures that inform an organization’s current and future strategy.

During this process both the positive and the negative end of the spectrum of possibilities are deliberately considered. For instance, when setting foundational principles both positive and dystopian principles are identified.
An example of a positive future principle is to consider solutions from the perspective of human needs, not technological capability.
Or the flip side: Consider solutions from a technological capability perspective, with
human needs as secondary and inconvenient.
When scanning, we interpret information for its positive and dystopian effects, etc.

By explicitly working with and looking for the best and worst possible outcomes, Badminton’s model entices out-of-the-box thinking and stretching our busy day-to-day mindsets. Our thinking runs on autopilot in a business-as-usual context, so we tend to favor what is normal now - and we forecast only a bit of incremental, linear change. This best-worst framework stimulates a thorough foresight process and mental resilience.

Another feature of Badminton’s framework is creating scenarios for the 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s. This helps to look further out into different time horizons. This benefits companies as it challenges their short-term mindsets that limit what is possible today - and that endanger their relevance and added value to society in the possible futures.

Nikolas Badminton’s practical and realistic book on Strategic Foresight is highly recommended. You can reach out to Nikolas here.

© Marcella Bremer, 2025

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